First look at the Final Four: Who has the edge? South Carolina or UConn? Texas or UCLA?
· Yahoo Sports
For the second consecutive season, UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina will be the final four teams competing for a national championship. This time, they are all No. 1 seeds, marking the fifth time the top seeds have all made the final weekend since the field expanded to 64.
But even if the same teams will be gracing the court, this is the era of the transfer portal, and several different players will fulfill important roles when they touch down in Phoenix. Here is a first look at what to expect in the 2026 Final Four.
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UConn (38-0) vs. South Carolina (35-3)
It’s the rematch of the 2025 national championship. UConn won that game so thoroughly it informed South Carolina’s entire offseason strategy. Only 59 points in the title game? Bring in the nation’s leading scorer Ta’Niya Latson. Get dominated on the glass and in the paint? Bulk up the frontcourt with 6-foot-6 center Madina Okot.
The Gamecocks have completely turned the page with only one returning starter and a more flexible, versatile lineup — though less deep — than the one that was outclassed a season ago. The problem is the Huskies are as unbeatable as they were in 2025. Literally. They have not lost since Feb. 6, 2025.
UConn is the best shooting team in the country, but the Huskies’ strength is its defense, which starts 94 feet from the basket. They force turnovers on 29.3 percent of opposing possessions, score more points off of turnovers (32.9 per game) than anyone else and also limit opponents to the lowest shooting percentage in the country (33.4 percent).
For most of the season, South Carolina has been excellent at taking care of the ball, with turnovers on fewer than 15 percent of their possessions. But there was one disastrous stretch to start the SEC championship game against Texas, and the Gamecocks can’t afford any of those lulls against UConn.
Where the improved offense might come in handy for South Carolina is beyond the 3-point line. The Huskies concede a high volume of 3s, and the Gamecocks have confident shooters who make 37.3 percent of their attempts. If Tessa Johnson or new additions Madina Okot and Agot Makeer find their range, that could shake up UConn’s schemes.
South Carolina will have its own challenges with the Huskies’ offensive firepower. Sarah Strong and Joyce Edwards have been battling since their high school days in North and South Carolina, but Strong has usually gotten the better of her. Raven Johnson and Tessa Johnson will have to contend with the bigger Azzi Fudd, who hasn’t been at her best this tournament and still averaging 16 points per game on better than 50 percent shooting; and she is the reigning Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four.
Even with some hiccups early against North Carolina and Notre Dame, UConn hasn’t given enough reasons to believe that another team can actually pull off the upset. The Huskies are too deep, too disciplined and too talented.
Prediction: UConn 79, South Carolina 68
UCLA (35-1) vs. Texas (35-3)
The Longhorns are the only team to defeat the Bruins this season, all the way back in November during the Players’ Era Championship. It was a loss that course-corrected UCLA’s season, as it beat Duke by 30 points the next day and proceeded to roll undefeated through the Big Ten.
That isn’t to say that the Bruins have solved all the issues Texas presented the day before Thanksgiving. The Longhorns’ full-court pressure got UCLA out of sorts; they forced 10 first-half turnovers, attempted 10 more field goals and took a 20-point lead into halftime. When the Bruins faced Duke in the Elite Eight, they had similar struggles with the press, committing 12 turnovers in the first half.
The possession battle is the No. 1 area of concern between Texas and UCLA. The Bruins have the nation’s top-ranked offense, per CBB Analytics, and when they get up shots, they convert them at a high clip (51.3 percent, the second-best field-goal percentage nationally). But they average only about four more field-goal attempts than their opponents; the Longhorns, meanwhile, take 15 more field goals per game thanks to their turnover margin and crashing the offensive glass. The closer to even the field-goal margin gets, the more it favors UCLA.
The next big question is what the Bruins do with Madison Booker. Although UCLA prides itself on its team defense, there isn’t really a wing stopper on the roster; in previous seasons, Gabriela Jaquez has been tasked with guarding the JuJu Watkins types, and it has not gone well. Booker can shoot over any Bruins defender and she has the strength to get through them on her way to the basket. UCLA will need to wall off the paint and force Booker into a diet of jumpers.
The Longhorns will have a similar conundrum with Lauren Betts, who has been a matchup problem for just about every team the Bruins have faced this season. Texas doesn’t have the pure size to contend with Betts, though Breya Cunningham and especially Kyla Oldacre are at least physical enough to be able to move Betts. The key for the Longhorns is denying the ball to Betts altogether, and they have arguably the best perimeter defense in college basketball to make that happen.
The careers of three great veteran point guards (Texas’ Rori Harmon, and UCLA’s Kiki Rice and Charlisse Leger-Walker) will come to an end in Phoenix, either Friday or Sunday. Harmon had Rice and Leger-Walker in hell during their first meeting, but Rice had been back from shoulder surgery for only one month and Leger-Walker was playing her seventh game for UCLA. If one of those lead guards can take control of this matchup, it could swing the game in their favor.
Ultimately, Texas is in better form (the Longhorns won their first four games by 142 points) and have the athletes to disrupt UCLA.
Prediction: Texas 74, UCLA 66
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball
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