South African rail payload soared in January
· The South African
South African rail payload soared by 13.4% year-on-year in January 2026. Conversely, the payload transported by road declined by 5.5% year-on-year.
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Road transport to Mozambique was hampered by flooding in Mpumalanga in January. The flooding disrupted road transport to the port of Maputo. This saw transit times on the N4 corridor between Pretoria and Maputo increase to 19.7 hours in January 2026 from 16.3 hours in January 2025.
Chinese New Year distortion
Evidently, the rail payload increase in January was due to a 40.5% year-on-year jump in bulk exports. This was especially due to an 82.7% year-on-year surge in exports from Saldanha. These exports are mostly iron ore. The main export destination is China. Economic activity in China is distorted by the Lunar New Year celebration. In the same way that Easter and Ramadan are movable events determined by the moon, so is the Chinese New Year.
Generally speaking, the Chinese New Year takes place between 21 January and 21 February. The actual date is the second new moon after the 21 December solstice. In 2025, the Chinese New Year was on 29 January and in 2026 it was on 17 February.
Consequently, a surge in January 2026 compared with a holiday-distorted January 2025 is not exceptional. Furthermore, that is why the Chinese statistical authorities combine January and February into the Lunar New Year. This obviates the large year-on-year swings if one compares January with January.
The increase in bulk exports from the other South African ports in January was 16.0% year-on-year as their exports are not as concentrated in China
2025 annual detail
South African land transport grew by 0.3% in 2025 to 1 144 million tons (Mt). This followed a 11.5% rise in 2024.
Statistics South Africa reported that the 2025 total is now 40.2% more than the 2020 total. The latter total was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown restrictions that severely hampered economic activity.
Road transport is fast, reliable and efficient. However, for bulk commodities such as coal and iron ore it is cheaper to transport them by rail. The problems at Transnet however meant that rail lost its market share from 23.6% in 2019 to only 14.1% in 2024.
Subsequently there has been a recovery to a 14.7% share in 2025. The Transnet strategic objective is to have a 30% share. They aim to achieve this by diversifying into other bulk commodities such as chrome ore, manganese ore, magnetite, copper and zinc concentrates.
A fair amount of the above are currently transported by road to the port in Maputo in Mozambique, but the aim is to switch this to rail.
Additionally, Transnet wants to switch container and automotive payloads on to rail as well. This is why it is promoting a rail link between the automotive sectors in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape.